CAISOにおける電力の仮想的な売買

CAISOの管内で行われている「Convergence Bids」というのは別名「Virtual Bids」ともいうが、これは純粋にファイナルシャルな取引である。実際（物理的）に発電を行ったり、それを使用する訳では無く、発電側と利用する側がリスクをヘッジする為に使う。
CAISOの資料より要点をまとめると下記の様になる。これをやっていくと、一日前市場の価格と、当日の価格が近づいてくるので、「Convergence」と言う訳なんだが...

  • Convergence Bids also known as Virtual Bids are purely financial transactions
  • Virtual Demand
    • Bid to buy at Day-Ahead price and sell at Real-Time price
  • Virtual Supply
    • Offer to sell at Day-Ahead price and buy at real-time price
  • Supported in Day-Ahead Market only
  • May be submitted at pricing nodes within CAISO system
  • Does not require any physical generation or load
  • Single day outcome – low risk
  • 「Convergence Bids」がどう実際のマーケット(Physical Market)に影響を与えるか?
    • Virtual bids ARE used in the "Integrated Forward Market" process and can set the LMP
    • Virtual bids are NOT included in the "Residual Unit Commitment" process
    • Virtual bids will not be included in the LMPM process
  • なぜ、マーケットへの参加者が「virtual bidding」に参加する方が良いのか?
    • Ability to arbitrage difference between Day-Ahead and Real-Time prices
    • Hedge generator outages and demand response
    • Optimize financial settlements between Day-Ahead and Real-Time market
  • 例１： Arbitrage difference in market prices at a location using virtual supply
    • Day-Ahead
      • LMP = $20
      • Virtual supply bid clears for 100 MW at $20
      • Settles at 100 MW * $20 = $2,000
    • Real-Time
      • LMP = $15
      • Virtual supply liquidated in opposite position at $15
      • Settles at 100 MW * $15 = $-(1500)
  • この場合は、Net Positionが $500のクレジットとなる
  • 例２：Generator hedges against potential outage and high real-time prices
    • Day-Ahead
      • LMP = $15
      • Schedule for 200 MW
      • Clears 100 MW Virtual Demand Bid at $15
      • Generator settles 200 MW * $15 = $ 3,000
      • Virtual demand settles 100 MW * $15 = $ -(1500)
    • Real-Time
      • LMP = $ 20
      • Produces 100 MW
      • Virtual demand bid liquidated in opposite position at $20
      • Generator settles at 100 MW * $20 = - (2,000) RT imbalance
      • Virtual demand settles 100 MW * $20 = $2,000
  • この場合は、Net Positionが $1,500のクレジットとなる

う〜〜ん、こういうややこしい仕組みをつぎつぎ入れこむと、投機筋が暗躍しだし、やがてハンドル出来なくなり、2000年の電力危機の二の舞にならないのだろうか？